Success And Nowhere (One Day To Election)

How thin the line between the two, eh? (referring to the title there).

Little of substance actually happening today, other than the final rallying calls, the last desperate attempts to gain a few paltry votes. You do notice as time goes on, candidates, the ones in trouble, stop calling for votes and start calling for transfers. Peter Power in Limerick City is an example.

RTE is gearing up for its own election coverage and has created individual Twitter accounts for each constituency. Up to date info during the count, within seconds of anything happening. Happy times for me.

So, what is going to be success and nowhere for each party?

Fianna Fail is just trying to avoid a meltdown really. I suppose the high mark for them at the moment would be to stay ahead of Labour, but I don’t really see that happening. As it is, somewhere in the mid thirties should be the goal, though high twenties might be more realistic. Bad is less than twenty, not entirely impossible.

Fine Gael has to see a majority – 84 seats – as the high mark but I don’t think that is within their reach, barring a Labour failure and a Fianna Fail implosion. High or mid seventies is more attainable, an area where the prospect of an Independent backed government is possible. Bad has to be somewhere within the sixties range, with Labour and Fianna Fail winning/retaining seats as a result.

Labour, from such a strong position at the start of the campaign, are not quite at the same level. 40 seats must be the goal at the moment, a doubling of their total. Anything higher is a bonus. Bad is below 35, or failing to better Fianna Fail. Such a result would be immensely disappointing and make a mockery of the “Gilmore Gale”.

The Greens would love if what would appear to be a late surge (well, relatively speaking) would let them retain at least half of their seats. That has to be the limit of their ambitions. Bad is a total wipeout, not unlikely.

Sinn Fein, well, the whole election might turn on their fortunes. Considering the rise in their profile, they must get at least double figures. Somewhere close to 15 is their ambition I think. Bad would be under ten, and an embarrassing rebuke of their apparent popularity.

The ULA? Who knows? The polls aren’t much of a help in regards to them. I suppose they must be hoping for somewhere above four, they can expect a minimum of one (Higgins).

And the Independents can expect to have 15 or so. Like the ULA, it’s hard to really call them.

So, here we are. I’m heading down to Luimneach tomorrow to cast my vote. If you’re interested, I’ll tell you my preferences, though my motivations and reasons will remain locked inside my pretty little head.

1. Noonan (FG)
2. O’Dea (FF)
3. O’Donnell (FG)
4. Leddin (LAB)
5. Cahill (G)
6. O’Sullivan (LAB)
7. Power (FF)
8. Prendiville (SOC/ULA)
9. Kiely (IND)
10. Larkin (IND)

And no preferences for Quinlivan (SF), O’Donoghue (IND) or Riordan (IND).

Have a good polling day everyone, stuff gets real starting Saturday.