Permutations For Ireland, Looking Ahead And Market’s Field Problems

Just to clear up some of the permutations that are going around.

The important point regarding Ireland’s fortunes in Group C is that goal difference (GD) is not the primary method of differentiating teams that have finished on the same number of points. The primary method is the result of the game between the two teams in question. So, in essence, we cannot finish ahead of Croatia now if we finish on the same number of points.

So, the nine scenarios then, that Ireland will be facing into on the last day. Some rudimentary tables here of what the group will look like going into the last series of games.

1.       If Ireland lose to Spain and Croatia beat Italy:

Croatia 6

Spain    4

Italy      1

Ireland 0

Ireland are eliminated.

2.       If Ireland lose to Spain and Croatia and Italy draw:

Croatia 4

Spain    4 (interchangeable with Croatia depending on margin of victory over Ireland)

Italy      2

Ireland 0

Ireland are eliminated.

3.       If Ireland lost to Spain and Italy beat Croatia:

Italy      4

Spain    4

Croatia 3

Ireland 0

Ireland are eliminated. There is no scenario where Ireland lose to Spain and remain in contention.

4.       If Ireland and Spain draw and Croatia beat Italy

Croatia 6

Spain    2

Italy      1

Ireland 1 (Could potentially be third, doesn’t really matter)

Ireland would then qualify if they beat Italy and Spain dropped points to Croatia. If Ireland and Italy draw and Spain lose, all three teams would be on the same points having drawn all games against each other. The matter would go to GD in games lost against Croatia. Ireland is -2 on that count.

5.       If Ireland and Spain draw and Croatia and Italy draw:

Croatia  4

Spain     2

Italy       2 (interchangeable with Spain)

Ireland  1

Ireland would then qualify if they beat Italy and Spain dropped points to Croatia. They could not finish higher then Croatia. If Ireland draw with Italy, Italy qualify (unless Spain win).

1. 6.       If Ireland and Spain draw and Italy beat Croatia:

Italy      4

Croatia 3

Spain    2

Ireland 1

Ireland would qualify if they beat Italy, if there is a winner between Croatia and Spain. As a commenter pointed out, a draw between Croatia/Spain and an Irish win would result in a unique circular scenario, with three teams on four points. Croatia would have to finish ahead of Ireland but below Italy, Italy would have to finish higher then Croatia but lower then Ireland and Ireland would have to finish higher then Italy but below Croatia on the head-to-head criteria. In that event, I presume GD would be applied.

7.       If Ireland beat Spain and Croatia beat Italy

Croatia  6

Ireland  3

Spain     1

Italy       1

Ireland would qualify with a win or draw against Italy.

8.       If Ireland beat Spain and Croatia and Italy draw:

Croatia  4

Ireland  3

Italy       2

Spain     1

Ireland would qualify with a win or draw against Italy.

9.       If Ireland beat Spain and Italy beat Croatia:

Italy      4

Croatia 3

Ireland 3

Spain    1

Ireland would qualify with a win over Italy and with a draw if Spain beat Croatia.

A draw is all that Ireland can realistically hope for against Spain, so scenarios 7-9 are included mostly for completeness sake. Scenario six is the one Ireland fans should be hoping for, as it leaves most of our destiny in our own hands.

One or two other thoughts on the match yesterday. Irish fans wake up today wondering just what the hell went wrong, but we should be careful not to tolerate any degree of delusion or excuses. We were beaten by a better team, regardless of some questionable refereeing calls and “bad luck”. This is no Paris revisited, we didn’t deserve to win. Irish football would be better served by a honest introspection of the strengths and weakness of our set –up at all levels. We all got sucked in by the wave of optimism over the last few days, this was just a reality check.

But, saying that, such a task should wait until after the tournament. Ireland are not out of Euro 2012 yet. Spain are not invincible and Ireland have a decent record against Italy under Trapattoni (one friendly win, two competitive draws). Talk of Ireland going out against Spain seeking a win is reactionary and unnecessary. If this Irish team goes out against Spain with an open attacking mindset, the Spanish will chew us up and spit us out with their midfield passing technique and forward talent. We should be taking a leaf out of Italy’s book, not get drawn into a midfield battle, focus on a strong, committed defence, one that displays an organisation that was sorely lacking against Croatia. Spain are not the team to play Gibson, McClean, Kelly. Maybe they could have done something last night, but that time is gone.

If Ireland lose to Spain, the likely case, I would like to see Trapattoni begin the rebuilding effort immediately. Drop Keane, McGeady, Duff, Andrews, Whelan, O’Shea, Dunne and Given. Put on Walters, Cox, McClean, Hunt, Gibson, Kelly, O’Dea, Westwood. The newer blood. The old guard has had their day and should not be coddled with the belief that they are guaranteed of being asked to return for the World Cup qualifying campaign. Ireland has good, younger players waiting for their chance, players who could well prove to be the equal of their older counterparts in time. If we are facing into an Italian game that has no bearing on our qualification, they should get that chance, in preparation for the coming campaign if nothing else. Let them have a chance to shine on the big stage, so they’ll have even more hunger to get back there and do it again, in games that matter. Players like Keane, Duff, Dunne and Given are not likely to be travelling to Brazil in 2014, should Ireland get there. They won’t be the driving force behind that journey.

Anyway, enough of that. From discussing the depression of the international scene, let’s move to discussing the depression of the local scene. News that members of Limerick’s city council could attempt to block the redevelopment of the Market’s Field site as a new stadium for Limerick FC is frustrating to read, for the sheer brazenness of it. The council objects to the “lack of consultation” but appear to have made no effort to talk to Limerick FC themselves, about a project that has hardly been a secret. They have made no effort, despite several years of talking about it, to move forward on a “community centre” for the Garryowen region, which they now, for some reason, expect a private football club to build for them.

Ultimately, this is an attention grab by a group of politicians, some of them former general election candidates, some of them (presumably) future general election candidates, to get in the newspapers, make it appear as if they are doing something for the local community (when they have done the complete opposite) and an attempt to demonize a local business and sporting source.

If Limerick’s application to redevelop Market’s Field is delayed, it could jeopardize any chance the club have of playing in the Premier Division next season, as they are unlikely to get a license for the top tier playing out of the inferior facilities of Jackman Park. If this is an outcome that the city council, attempting to pass off their own inactivity on community development to Limerick FC, finds acceptable, then they are simply adding to the litany of incompetent and poor political leadership that they have been guilty of for years.