Via the Mail, and the Cedar Lounge Revolution, we have what is claimed to be Fine Gael polling data/predictions for every constituency. Let’s take a quick look at what it says about Kildare North, transcribed:
FOUR SEATS Currently FG (2) LAB (1) SOCDEM (1)
Predicted outcome: FG 1 FF1 LAB 1 SocDem 1
- Catherine Murphy SocDem
- Emmet Stagg LAB
- Bernard Durkan FG
- James Lawless FF
- Anthony Lawlor FG
- Reada Cronin SF
- Frank O’Rourke FF
Fianna Fail dropped from almost 40% of first preferences here in 2007 to 14% in 2011. You’d fancy it to bounce back to one seat, but the two candidate plan is probably a big mistake. That could let Cronin in, or even Lawlor. But, for now, can tip Lawlor as the most likely. First three seem safe.
FF gain from FG.
Again and again I encounter this feeling that that Stagg’s seat is safe. I’m going to talk about this a little bit more on Thursday, but I beg leave to remind people that, as safe as Stagg’s seat has usually been (though, jumping from under 6’000 to over 10K in first preferences), he’s never faced a re-election campaign where his party was this unpopular. And even if his usual core vote remains, will he be as transfer friendly as he once was? And there is only one candidate who will stand to benefit, and that’s Cronin.
Bar that, everything else is largely as I see it as well. Murphy will top the poll, Durkan will come in behind her at some point, and provided Fianna Fail don’t mess it up – as this information notes, running two candidates was a needless complication to the goal of gaining a likely seat – Lawless should enter the Dail for the first time. More on this topic later.