Kildare North: Fifth Count

The second day of counting is well under way, and Kildare North has its fifth out. With the Renua candidate gone and his vote distributed, things are looking like this:

Murphy (SD): 11108 (Elected)

Lawless (FF): 7919 (+182)

O’Rourke (FF): 6711 (+149)

Durkan (FG):  6472 (+150)

Lawlor (FG): 5714 (+142)

Stagg (LAB): 4488 (+80)

Cronin (SF): 3708 (+87)

Ni Fhalluin (G): 2020 (+216)

Young (IND): 1858 (+121)

FitzGerald (R): 1236 (Eliminated)

Merriman (A-P): 943 (Eliminated)

Beirne (IND): 389 (Eliminated)

Dunne (IND): 261 (Eliminated)

O’Sullivan (IND): 119 (Eliminated)

Which put visually is like this:

dail12

Most going to Ni Fhalluin, a result of FitzGerald’s voters previously being Green perhaps? Again, Lawless being quite transfer friendly, though only a little bit more, in this case, than the other serious contenders.

If Cronin is going to stay involved, she needs enough of a boost from Young’s elimination, and then Ni Fhalluin’s to get past Stagg, then enough of a boost from his transfers to get past Lawlor, then enough of a boost…you see what I mean. It isn’t the most unlikely scenario, but requires a lot to go her way, and she hasn’t been as transfer friendly so far as she would like. Probably a better chance that the two Fine Gael TD’s would be elected, if both benefit from Stagg’s transfers enough to overtake O’Rourke. All speculation. Young’s surplus will now be redistributed. Updates to follow, maybe not for a while, as the real world calls.

This entry was posted in General Election 2016, Ireland, Politics and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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