There should be a count in Kildare North in the next 90 minutes – 2 hours. We the majority of the boxes tallied, there are some clear trends.
Catherine Murphy will blow the field away, with over 30% of the first preferences according to some. Fianna Fail’s local performance is matching their national resurgence, and both Lawless and O’Rourke are polling strongly, Lawless a bit better. Durkan should be fine.
It’s after that that things get really complicated. Lawlor, O’Rourke, Cronin and Stagg will fight for the last seat, with Stagg’s vote way down, and Sinn Fein not doing as great as I thought they would – more votes going to Murphy being the cause. It will come down, to a large degree, to where Murphy’s surplus will go, and reports are that it’s flying all over the place. Durkan will give Lawlor a boost, and Lawless, pretty likely to be elected, will do the same for O’Rourke.
Right now, it’s almost more likely that Fianna Fail will return two TD’s for Kildare North than Stagg retaining his seat, nevermind the challenge of Reada Cronin.
Update: Stagg will almost certainly lose his seat. Cronin will be looking to Murphy, O’Rourke to Lawless and Lawlor to Durkan to see if they can take it.