Kildare North: First Count

The first count is in, after a significant delay over spoilt and invalid votes. Total poll is 48935 which makes the quota 9788:

Murphy (SD): 11108

Lawless (FF): 7461

O’Rourke (FF): 6341

Durkan (FG):  6142

Lawlor (FG): 5406

Stagg (LAB): 4087

Cronin (SF): 3205

Ni Fhalluin (G): 1485

Young (IND): 1200

FitzGerald (R): 994

Merriman (A-P): 781

Beirne (IND): 372

Dunne (IND): 249

O’Sullivan (IND): 99

Which, in visual terms, looks like this:

dail7

Or, in order of votes:

dail8

So, Murphy has been elected, and with a sizable surplus to boot. Where that’s going, which is in no way clear, is going to determine a lot, if it was diluted among a lot of people it would be interesting. Elsewhere, Fianna Fail’s huge performance has them in a position to secure two seats, something no one, including myself, expected. But that’ll depend on the transfer policy. Much harder to see Fine Gael keeping two seats, with Lawlor a bit too far back for it to be considered in any way likely.

As for Stagg, it’s a disaster, but as I said during the campaign, there was no way that his vote numbers weren’t going to be down. This is his worst performance in a general election since 1981. I did think that Cronin would do better than she did, but I guess that Sinn Fein just didn’t have the penetration. That first preference is only a 0.9% improvement on 2011, way outside the national average.

More than I expected for the Greens, I’m sure they’ll take some heart from that and look to the Locals in 2019 with some confidence. That they finished above someone with the local profile of Young is surprising to me, though less so is Merriman landing in behind him, and the two together reflect the hard-left’s lack of punch in this constituency. For FitzGerald, it’s a catastrophe, only a negligible improvement on his 2011 Green vote. And the other Independents are, well, nowhere.

Doing a very, very rough transfer process, going by my own best guesses, the possibility of Cronin getting back into contention isn’t completely far-fetched with transfers from Murphy, Young, Merriman, Ni Fhalluin and maybe Stagg, but at the end I think that O’Rourke, without getting quota, will get the last seat. Stagg could also aid Lawlor late on. We’ll have to wait and see.

After Murphy’s surplus of 1320 is sorted, it is likely that Beirne, Dunne and O’Sullivan (all IND) will be eliminated together, a total of 720 votes. You’d imagine, for what it will be worth, they’ll head in the direction of Merriman, Young and Cronin. Updates to follow.

This entry was posted in General Election 2016, Ireland, Politics, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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