Kildare North: A Count Scenario (7 Days To Election)

As we are a week out from the general election date, allow me to present a thought experiment. Here’s how I think that Catherine Murphy, Bernard Durkan, James Lawless and Réada Cronin become TD’s, based on some pondering on the way the count might turn out. The key things influencing my thinking would be:

-Murphy being elected on the first count, but perhaps without a gargantuan surplus.

-Durkan being comfortable in first preferences but struggling to get transfers.

-Labour being transfer toxic.

-Sinn Fein being transfer friendly.

-Fianna Fail getting the transfer policy right.

Let’s imagine the first count comes back something like this (elected candidates in bold, eliminated in italics):

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. Emmet Stagg
  4. James Lawless
  5. Réada Cronin
  6. Anthony Lawlor
  7. Frank O’Rourke
  8. Brendan Young
  9. Ashling Merriman
  10. Shane FitzGerald
  11. Maebh Ní Fhallúin
  12. Michael Beirne
  13. Gerard Dunne
  14. Elizabeth O’Sullivan

In this scenario, I don’t forsee the votes being redistributed as being large enough to have a clear effect on the way things stand.

Second count:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. Emmet Stagg
  4. James Lawless
  5. Réada Cronin
  6. Anthony Lawlor
  7. Frank O’Rourke
  8. Brendan Young
  9. Ashling Merriman
  10. Shane FitzGerald

FitzGerald’s transfers, such as they will be, will presumably drift in the direction of the Fine Gael TD’s , but to little effect.

Third Count:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. Emmet Stagg
  4. James Lawless
  5. Réada Cronin
  6. Anthony Lawlor
  7. Frank O’Rourke
  8. Brendan Young
  9. Ashling Merriman

Merriman’s will presumably go straight to Young and Cronin, and everything up to this point might be enough to move then up a place each.

Fourth Count:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. Emmett Stagg
  4. Réada Cronin
  5. James Lawless
  6. Anthony Lawlor
  7. Brendan Young
  8. Frank O’Rourke

O’Rourke’s transfers would go to Lawless, and would be sizable enough to move him two places.

Fifth Count:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. James Lawless
  4. Emmett Stagg
  5. Réada Cronin
  6. Anthony Lawlor
  7. Brendan Young

Young would only really have Cronin to send votes to, moving her up.

Sixth Count:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. James Lawless
  4. Réada Cronin
  5. Emmett Stagg
  6. Anthony Lawlor

Lawlor’s votes would then get Durkan elected. I don’t think enough would go to Stagg, crucially.

Seventh Count:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. James Lawless
  4. Réada Cronin
  5. Emmett Stagg

Durkan’s small surplus would go to Stagg primarily, but I don’t think it would be enough.

Eighth Count:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. James Lawless
  4. Réada Cronin
  5. Emmett Stagg

With Stagg’s elimination, the vote ends automatically:

  1. Catherine Murphy
  2. Bernard Durkan
  3. James Lawless
  4. Reada Cronin

What do you think? Am I under-estimating Durkan and Stagg? Am I over-estimating Cronin? Am I giving too little thought to the hard-left, or too much to Lawless? The critical point in this scenario would be the seventh count (Lawlor’s distribution). If Durkan had already been elected earlier than I think, Lawlor’s transfers would only have Stagg to go to, and that would put him in over Cronin, making the Fine Gael man an unlikely Labour kingmaker. Similarly, if Stagg got a much higher vote than I think he will, his eventual transfers to Durkan, and then onto Lawlor could be enough to propel both back into Dail Eireann.

I guess we’ll see. Take little heed of my late-night thoughts, but I thought the scenario not too out there.

This entry was posted in General Election 2016, Ireland, Politics and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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