Same-Sex Marriage Referendum: Four Days Out

Time’s moving on now. As expected a few more polls have been released since the last time I wrote on this, and it’s a varied mix. The common thread is that the “Yes” side has the lead, and a sizable one, while the “No” side and the “Don’t Know’s” are more even. Despite some apocalyptic headlines, such as in the Indo, it’s still generally encouraging. Splitting the difference between the polls see’s the “Yes” side settle somewhere in the 60’s, with “No” failing to win even if all of the “Don’t Know” crowd voted their way (which they won’t, I’d be thinking a 33/66 split there). Since it’s been a few weeks since the last few polls, we can see that in the frenzy of negative campaigning (and man has it become especially negative, you should see the bile filled copy of Alive that was pushed through my letterbox yesterday), the “No” side hasn’t managed to cut down the “Yes” lead enough in the polls, barely managing to drag away 10% of its support directly to its side.

If the polls hold true, this vote is decided, and, looking at their general outline, I would be very surprised at this stage if they don’t. The vote can still swing “No”, but it would require a seismic movement against all of the indicators to do so, probably combined with an unexpectedly low turnout or bad weather or whatever. So I’m reasonably confident ahead of Friday. At worst, the poll spin that “Yes” is faltering will combat complacency, which isn’t a bad thing, though the panic stations sentiment isn’t super helpful either in my opinion.

This is the week for impassioned appeals for people to get out and vote “Yes”, because if there is a reasonable turn-out then the vote will be carried. I won’t be linking around to all of the ones that I find, but I do think that Jason O’Mahony’s thoughts are exceptional.

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