The Count: Monday



1910: The recounts continue in Galway West, Laois-Offaly and Wicklow, but Wicklow at least is soon to get back onto the actual business of electing people. The counts have been going on for 58 hours now, with the last result being 21 hours ago.

1917: 12 seats remain to be filled, five in Wicklow, four in Laois-Offaly and three in Galway West. While the next Dail has not yet been fully filled, negotiations for the next government are ongoing with a FG/Lab coalition becoming a certainty at this point barring an unlikely breakdown in the talks.

2005: After over a full day of a recount, nothing has changed in Wicklow, bar a slight change in the quota which will not effect previous eliminations. Dick Roache (FF) has been eliminated.

2026: It has now been over a full day since the last result was announced. The Laois-Offaly recount is due to end shortly.

2038: The Laois-Offaly recount has been completed with no changes. FGs Liam Quinn has been eliminated from the running.

2320: More real life in the way, but no results in my absence. All three counts have confirmed they will continue until finished, barring more recount calls.

Galway West is still going through its previous counts.

John Maloney (FF) has been eliminated on count 11 of Laois-Offaly. His surplus should save running mate Sean Fleming from elimination in the next count, dooming Independent John Foley. A chance it could put Barry Cowen over the top as well. John Whelan remains in firm position to take the last seat there for Labour.

Pat Fitzgerald (FF) should have enough transfers from Dick Roache to survive the next count with Joe Behan (IND) losing out. But, still too much of a gap between sixth (Anne Ferris, Lab) and seventh (Tom Fortune, Lab) for anyone below that to remain in contention.

20 candidates competing for 12 seats in three constituencies. Lets hope they can finish it out tonight.

2356: John Foley (IND) has been eliminated in Laois-Offaly. Most of Maloney’s (FF) transfers went to Sean Fleming which has seen him soar into fifth place ahead of Labour’s John Whelan, with room to spare. With only six candidates left for five seats, the next elimination will end it and Fianna Fail look like they’re taking two seats.

The distribution of Roache’s surplus has led to the elimination of Tom Fortune (LAB) in Wicklow. Fortune’s transfers will decide if running mate Anne Ferris gets in or not. Difficult, but not impossible.

0029: Wicklow finally has an elected TD, as Fine Gael’s Andrew Doyle reaches quota. His election has officially made this Fine Gael’s most successful electoral performance ever, beating their 70 seat total in November 1982.

0040: Fianna Fail’s Pat Fitzgerald has also been eliminated in Wicklow. Labour’s Anne Ferris has received over 3’500 transfers from her running mate Tom Fortune and things are getting all kinds of tight in the race for the last two seats there. Only one or two more counts necessary and Wicklow will finally be over.

Meanwhile, in Laois-Offaly, John Whelan (IND), currently sixth, has conceded with the next count to be the last. The constituency will have two FG, two FF and one SF when all is said and done.

Those will be the last seats Fianna Fail will take in this election. Their final tally will be 20.

0046: All now rests on who receives the most transfers from Fitzgerald. Ferris (Lab) leads Brady (SF) and Donnelly (IND) with only around 1’300 votes seperating them. Two of them will get seats. Fitzgerald has just over 7’000 votes to give out.

0048: Only 57 votes seperate Donnelly and Brady. You can bet that a final result of similar closeness will result in yet another recount.

The final count from Laois-Offaly is expected shortly.

0104: The Galway West recount has finally ended. That looks like being the last constituency to finish now. The recount has reduced Kyne’s lead over running mate Healy Eames by 11 to 45. The distribution of Nolan’s (LAB) surplus of 326 votes will decide which of those two will be elected.

0140: The Laois-Offaly count has finished with the final elimination of Joe Behan. Marcella Corcoran Kennedy (FG), Barry Cowen (FF), Brian Stanley (SF) and Sean Fleming (FG) are all elected without reaching quota, joining FGs Charles Flanagan, elected earlier. The count lasted 64 and half hours. Fianna Fail will be happy, as will Sinn Fein. Laois-Offaly is now done.

10 candidates remain fighting for seven seats in two constituencies.

0125: News from Wicklow indicates that Ferris and Donnelly are looking good for the last two seats with Brady losing out. A rare disappointment for Sinn Fein, though I would wager Brady will call for at least a partial recount.

0153: Billy Timmins (FG) has been elected in Wicklow. It would appear a few more counts, distributions of small surpluses, will be required there. Nine candidates for six seats in two constituencies left.

0208: Healy Eames has been eliminated in Galway West. That should see her running mates, Kyne and Walsh, over the line with Noel Grealish.

0223: Wicklow is beginning its 19th count, the distribution of Billy Timmins’ surplus of 113 votes.

There is only one count left in each of the two remaining constituencies.

0245: Expectation is that the Galway West count will last for at least another 90 minutes. They are committed to finishing it without another adjournment.

0321: The final count in Wicklow sees Anne Ferris (LAB), Stephen Donnelly (IND) and Simon Harris (FG) elected, ending the contest. Sean Brady (SF) loses out. He requested a partial recount, then withdrew it shortly after. He was 116 votes behind Donnelly, so he would have been entitled I guess.

The Wicklow count lasted 66 hours and 18 minutes.

Only Galway West remains. Four candidates competing for three seats.

0330: In Galway West, former PD, now Independent Noel Grealish is sure to be elected, joining Eamon O’Cuiv (FF) and Derek Nolan (FG).

As for the others, Catherine Connolly (IND) is currently in fourth on 8379 votes. Brian Walsh (FG) is in fifth on 7518 and Sean Kyne (FG) is in sixth on 7083. The surplus of Fidelma Healy Eames (FG), 7004 votes, is currently being distributed.

As such, the last question of Election 2011 is whether that surplus will be divided evenly enough that both FG candidates can overtake Connolly, or whether only one of them can. That’s it. Fine Gael will either get both and finish on 76 seats, Independents on 14, or FG will finish in 75 and INDs on 15.

0332: That Independent figure I used before does not match others elsewhere, because I’m counting Seamus Healy, Independent in Tipp South, as a member of the ULA, under whose banner he ran. It is not clear yet if the ULA winners will continue to operate as a single grouping in the Dail or split into their constituent parts, so I’m counting them together for the time being.

0352: It remains very close in Galway West. I think it is likely that tonight will not see the end of the matter, with either Connolly or Kyne to call a recount, depending on who loses out.

Considering the amount of candidates in Wicklow, I would never have thought that Galway West would be the last to give a final report, but the recount there just would not end.

0403: Furthur reports say that there may be less then 20 votes between Kyne and Connolly in Galway West. I think some form of recount, at least the last few counts anyway, is likely. The count is 67 hours old.

0413: Maybe premature, but some definite reports that Connolly has hung on at the expense of Kyne…

0419: Unbelievable, from Galway West. Brian Walsh gets quota, with a surplus of 116…with running mate Kyne 58 votes behind Independent Connolly. One more count needed and it is as tight as it can be.

0424: Three candidates, two seats, one constituency.

0429: Alright, I’m calling it there. Regardless of who gets that last seat, which may take another hour to decide, a recount is almost certain. I’ll have some brief coverage tomorrow to round off my liveblog.

That’s it then. Congratulations to all elected TDs and commiserations to all those defeated. Further analysis and opinion to come, after a good long sleep. Thanks to all who have read my coverage of the count, I hope you found it informative and enjoyable. Good night.

This entry was posted in General Election 2011, Ireland, Politics and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to The Count: Monday

  1. Pingback: NFBs General Election Index | Never Felt Better

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s