1909: Dun Laoghaire is so tight and the counts are piddling along as we dispense with those who knew they had lost ages ago. Getting into the serious transfers soon there and it’s still all to play for between RBB, Bacik and Hanafin.
Brian Lenihan is elected in Dublin West, bringing that count to a close. He is the first FF candidate to be elected tonight and he failed to reach the quota.
Louth (5 seats) Quota: 13864
Seamus Kirk (FF/CC)
Gerry Adams (SF) 15072
Fergus O’Dowd (FG) 13918
Gerald Nash (LAB) 8718
Peter Fitzpatrick (FG) 7845
James Carroll (FF) 5681
Declan Breathnach (FF)5177
Mary Moran (LAB) 4546
Mark Dearey (G) 3244
Thomas Clare (NV) 2233
Adams isn’t a surprise and neither is O’Dowd. Nash and Fitzpatrick will soon follow for Fine Gael and Labour. Fianna Fail get the Ceann Comhairle, but thats it.
Cork North Central (4 seats) Quota: 10428
Jonathan O’Brien (SF) 7923
Billy Kelleher (FF) 7896
Kathleen Lynch (LAB) 7676
Dara Murphy (FG) 7597
Pat Burton (FG) 7072
John Gilroy (LAB) 6725
Mick Barry (SOC/ULA) 4803
Wow, that is close. Any one of those could still end up getting over the line.
In Meath West Damien English of FG is sure of getting a seat with Peader Toibin (SF) Jenny McHugh (LAB) and Ray Butler (FG) competing for the last two. Meath East is almost certain to see one Labour (Dominic Hannigan) and two Fine Gael (Shane McEntee and Regina Doherty) elected, another constituency where Fianna Fail just aren’t challenging. FGs Jimmy Deenihan has been elected in Kerry North-Limerick West with SFs Martin Ferris and Labours Arthur Spring looking near certainty’s.
The seats, after 30 had been elected:
1944: Dublin Mid-West has finished its count with two for Fine Gael and Two for Labour. Sean Crowe has been elected for Sinn Fein in Dublin South West with Labours Eamon Maloney certain to take the last.
Martin, as expected, has been elected on the first count, but with a surplus of only 40. It’s a five-seater though, so his running mate Michael McGrath should get in aswell, though he’ll have a long wait. FG will take two, Coveney and Buttimer with Ciaran Lynch for Labour also in the running. Dan Boyle crashes and burns for the Green party, not a surprise.
1949: Independent Mattie McGrath beats out Mansergh and Murphy to take the last seat in Tipperary South. 35 seats have been decided so far.
Mayo (5 seats) Quota: 12360
Enda Kenny (FG) 17472
Michael Ring (FG) 13180
Michelle Mulherin (FG) 8851
John O’Mahony (FG) 8667
Dara Calleary (FF) 8577
Michael Kilcoyne (IND) 3996
Jerry Cowley (LAB) 3644
Lisa Chambers (FF)3343 Rose Conway Walsh (SF) 2660
Therese Ruane (SF) 2142
Utterly astounding. Fine Gael get two over the line in one count, and will almost certainly take two more. Dara Calleary should get the last seat for FF, for what little it will mean in a county that is now firmly blue.
2011: Kieran O’Donnell, predictably, has gained most of Noonan surplus in Limerick City, jumoing into second. O’Dea and O’Sullivan are still very safe, well ahead of Quinlivan in fifth. The lower placed guys (and girls) are being weeded out.
2022: Padraig McLoughlainn becomes the fourth Sinn Fein candidate elected on North Donegal. In Longford-Westmeath, Willie Penrose tops the poll just shy of quota with Mary O’Rourke having an awful day, last of the three FF candidates. Both FF and FG appear to have suffered a bit from vote splitting here and the last 3 seats are still up for grabs between several candidates.
And Sheila Cahill has been eliminated in Limerick City.
2037: Dublin Central has returned its first count with Joe Costello (LAB) just shy of quota. Donoghue will follow him shortly, with Mary Lou McDonal (FG), Maureen O’Sullivan (IND), Aine Clancy (LAB) and Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) challenging for the last two. Very tight there still. Cyprian Brady is out of the running, well behind Fitzpatrick, a result I am personally delighted with.
Also happy to see Catherine Murphy cross the line in Kildare North with Lawlor (FG) right behind here, ending that count. A constituency to forget for Fianna Fail, previously so dominant here.
Trevor Sargant has been eliminated in Dublin North and with him, I think, any chance the Greens had of retaining a seat.
In Laois-Offaly, FGs Flanagan and the Taoiseach’s brother Barry are flying high. It looks like Stanley for Sinn Fein and Fleming for Fianna Fail will also get past the line, with three others competing for the last seat.
2048: Donegal South-West remains on a knife edge but Coughlan is fading gradually. Roscommon-South Leitrim has all but been decided after one count, two FG, one Independent. In Waterford, Fine Gael will take two and Fianna Fail should take one as well as one Independent with Labour shooting themselves in the vote by running two candidates. In Galway West, no clear opening has emerged with the top 7 all within a thousand of each other. Fine Gael have two assured in Carlow-Kilkenny, with Fianna Fail also confident of getting one.
2102: Maloney in Dublin South-West, has finally gotten across the line, ending that count.
Turnout has hit 70% in a lot of places which is really good to see.
Sean Barrett has been elected in Dun Laoghaire. I continue to back Bacik to outperform RBB there, because all of the other remaining candidates are more like to transfer to her.
From initially looking like he might be in trouble, Michael Healy-Rae has come good, though no one in Kerry South is that close to the quota. Looks like Healy-Rae, Brendan Griffin (FG), and Tom Fleming (IND) are the are safe bets though FFs John O’Donoghue is not out of the running yet.
2108: Both Kevin Kiely (IND) and Cian Prendiville (SOC/ULA) have been eliminated in Limerick City. Their surplus should see O’Donnell over the line after which Power will finally be eliminated.
Michael Moynihan (FF) and Aine Collins (FG) will soon be elected without reaching quota in Cork North-West.
2111: Because I’m seeing some confusion: Seamus Healy, in South Tipp, is an Independent but ran as part of the ULA, so I’m counting him as a ULA winner in my totals.
2117: The Greens will have no presence in the next Dail. Fianna Fail appear to be in a position where the mid-twenties would be the highpoint.
It now appears that, due to the processes of the PR-STV system, Ivana Bacik will be eliminated shortly in Dun Laoghaire, though the transfers of those remaining would have taken her past RBB if she had not been placed last (by a little more than a hundred votes) at this point in the count. Hanafin’s leap above her and RBB as a result of Andrews surplus has doomed her and gifted the last seat to the PBP candidate.
2127: Labour have taken a seat behind Mick Wallace in Wexford while Michael Ahern has conceded he will not retain his seat in Cork East. Bacik has indeed been eliminated, making an RBB victory inevitable, but Labour will be calling a full recount. It was only around 100 votes I suppose, when she was eliminated.
2131: Big, big news as Clare Daly (SOC/ULA) has been elected on the sixth count in Dublin North with Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell almost certain to take the last seat once her surplus has been distributed. She is the third ULA candidate to be elected, which will be four when RBB is elected. This is her fourth time going for the Dail, but this time her vote has essentially doubled.
2140: The County Limerick count has ended after just four counts with Fine Gaels Dan Neville and Patrick O’Donovan and Fianna Fails Niall Collins taking the three available seats. Disappointment for James Heffernen who had hoped to reverse Labour failings there this time out, 700 votes shy of Collins.
In Donegal South-West, Mary Coughlan has been eliminated, another gigantic Fianna Fail scalp. O’Domhnaill, her running mate, is still in the running, but is unlikely to catch Independent Tom Pringle. This is really an election of the FF old guard losing out and dragging the fresh faces down with them.
2144: Mary O’ Rouke is officially eliminated as Willie Penrose takes a seat for Labour in Longford-Westmeath. Fine Gael’s Damien English is elected in Meath West as his running mate Catherine Yore is eliminated.
2149: Watching Enda Kenny in the RTE studio, he is one happy looking man.
Fianna Fail’s decision to run two candidates in Kildare South may yet allow Independent Paddy Kennedy to get a seat.
A third of the seats have now been decided.
2158: Wicklow remains the only constituency to not have reported a first count, due in no small part to its amazing amount of candidates – 24 – and issues over spoilt votes.
Kieran O’Donnell has been elected in Limerick City. The only question now how the third/fourth place positions will fall between O’Dea (FF) and O’Sullivan (LAB). Only 40 between them. Joe Leddin (LAB) will be the next eliminated.
2205: The seats, after 60 elected:
2209: The Dun Laoghaire count has now been adjourned until tomorrow morning, pending a full recount of all votes.
Alex White has been elected in Dublin South with only a few more counts required there. The last three seats may all go Fine Gaels way.
I’m tired, having been glued to my laptop, TV, mobile phone and radio for…14 hours now. But, it’s a good kind of tired.
Alan Kelly has been elected in Tipp North, ending that count. He did well in converting his MEP success into a national stage.
2221: Nine Counts have been completed, with plenty more reaching a conclusion.
Dublin South East sees Lucinda Creighton (FG) and Ruiri Quinn (LAB) cross the line after six counts for their first confirmed seats. It is a measure of how accepted it has become, that I forgot to mention Green Party leader John Gormley’s elimination a while ago. I would guess that is the end of his political career.
Wicklow has returned a count. The three FG candidates, Andrew Doyle, Billy Timmins and Simon Harris, are in the lead with John Brady (SF), Stephen Donnolly (IND) Anne Ferris (LAB) and Joe Behan (LAB) all fighting for the other two seats. The two FF candidates, Dick Roche and Pat Fitzgerald, have split their vote and are unlikely to challenge. Those Independents under a thousand each have taken a rough total of 2’500 first preferences. We may never know what effect they will really have had.
2234: Dominic Hannigan of Labour takes the first seat in Meath East
In Cavan –Monaghan, O’Caolain has eased to the top place, but has been unable to bring his running mate, Kathryn Reilly with him. The other four seats are going Fianna Fail (Brendan Smith) and Fine Gael’s (Joe O’Reilly, Heather Humphreys and Sean Conlan) way.
The Donegal South-West count has ended with McGinley of Fine Gael and Thomas Pringle (IND) both elected, an extraordinary result. O’Domhnaill can take some heart from the result, pushing it right to the end. He is the future of Fianna Fail in the area, as Coughlan bows out.
2238: The Green’s Eamon Ryan has been eliminated in Dublin South. Fine Gael will take the last three seats there. It might not look like it, looking at the seat totals, but Fine Gael are going to sprint into the distance soon.
2242: O’Dea has been elected in Limerick City, breaching quota with the distribution of Power’s surplus. Quinlivan has been somewhat transfer-poison in this count. One more count left.
2249: Nine counts in Clare and no TDs elected. It seems increasingly likely no one will reach quata there. As it stands, two FG, one Lab and one Ind stand to be elected, though the last FF candidate, Timmy Dooley is still in contention.
2257: Christy O’Sullivan becomes the 18th sitting FF TD to fail to gain re-election in this contest
Moving onto a new post now.