The Count: 1400 To 1900

Continuing on for the next few hours. Just refresh to get the latest.

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1400: RTE are back after a mind-boggling half-hour break and the first counts are due soon enough.

1415: Mick Wallace will not only top the poll, but he will exceed the quota on the first count. RBB has been unable to extend his slim lead on Bacik, which is curtains for him. In the same constituency, Barry Andrews has all but conceded but his transfers may still benefit Hanafin. Conor Lenihan is also conceding.

Twitter is suffering a “global outage”. Seriously, what a day for it.

1428: Adams and O’Dowd should both be elected on the first count in Louth. Joe Higgins is celebrating already in Dublin South, crowing over Fianna Fails defeat. He predicts future success for the ULA. One wonders if he’s seen what’s going on in Dun Laoghaire.

1432: I’m told be reliable sources that a first count for Dublin North is imminent. Fine Gaels deputy leader, a ULA candidate and the Greens best hope are all in there.

1437: Former FFer Finian McGrath looks fairly downhearted in Dublin North-Central though he believes he’ll get transfers from the PBP candidate John Lyons for some reason. He and Haughey look to be in major trouble. Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton is safe of course.

1458: Further news from Wicklow, where the Fine Gael vote is just getting bigger and bigger, going past 40%. Fianna Fail down in the 10%

First count is in, Dublin West.

Dublin West (4 seats) Quota: 8495

Joan Burton (LAB) 9627
Dr Leo Varadkar (FG) 8359          
Joe Higgins (SOC/ULA) 8084
Brian Lenihan Jnr (FF) 6421         
Kieran Dennison (FG) 3190         
Patrick Nulty (LAB) 2686                              
Paul Donnelly (SF) 2597
David McGuinness (FF) 623        

Burton is the first TD elected to the 31st Dail, but will not be able to bring Patrcik Nulty in with her. Varadker is in a similar boat and will get over the line himself by the third count maximum. Good performance for Higgins, one that won’t really be replicated by any other Socialist/ULA candidate. Lenihan trails, but has a sufficient gap between him and Dennision. He won’t reach quota but he’ll get there. His running mate, McGuinness, had an awful performance as did the Greens.

1508: Next first count (vote numbers are on the left so I can count them up in a convenient manner).

Dublin Mid West (4 seats) Quota: 8545

Joanna Tuffy (LAB) 7495           
Frances Fitzgerald (FG) 7281    
Derek Keating (FG) 5933              
Robert Dowds (LAB) 5643            
Eoin O Broin (SF) 5060                   
John Curran (FF) 5043                 
Gino Kenny (PBP/ULA) 2471      
Paul Gogarty (G) 1484                   

No one elected, but an even share between Labour and Fine Gael looks likely. Unless O’Broin can get the transfers to effect the race. Tuffy has increased her vote total from 2007 almost as much as Gogarty lost. No seat for Gino Kenny there either or any far left candidate. I guess they ran too many.

1520: Burton’s surplus is 1’132 by the way. Presumably it is going Nulty’s way, but even all of it wouldn’t really help him. Regards the counts, those elected in bold, those eliminated with a line through.

1528: FFs Averil Power looking downhearted in Dublin North-East. She deflects questions on Fianna Fails disaster by talking about the lack of female TDs in the next Dail. Flanagan (FG) and Broughan (LAB) looking goof there, with SFs Larry O’Toole challenging.

1533: The Dublin West Returning Officer was hilarious by the way, forgetting to give Varadker’s vote until prompted by some of the louder FGers in attendance.

1550: Next count.

Dublin South West (4 seats) Quota: 9393

Pat Rabbitte (LAB) 12867                                                             
Brian Hayes (FG) 9366                                                                   
Sean Crowe (SF) 8064                                                                   
Eamonn Maloney (LAB) 4165                                                     
Cait Keane (FG) 3678                                                     
Charlie O’Connor (FF) 2718                                                         
Mick Murphy (SOC/ULA) 2462                                                                   
Conor Lenihan (FF) 2341                                                              

Pat Rabitte walks it and has three and a half thousand votes to give away. Provided that the vast majority go to Maloney, Labour are well in with a shout to get two seats. It really is between Keane and Maloney for that last seat. Awful result for Lenihan finishing behind Mick Murphy of the ULA and his running mate.                 

Dublin Mid-West is up to its third count, getting rid of the dregs. Peter Power has conceded in Limerick City.                

1558: Next

Kildare North (4 seats) Quota: 10’245

Bernard J Durkan (FG) 10168                                      
Emmet Stagg (LAB) 9718                                              
Catherine Murphy (IND) 6911                                   
Anthony Lawlor (FG) 6882                                           
John McGinley (LAB) 5261                                           
Aine Brady (FF) 4777                                      
Martin Kelly (SF) 2896                       
Michael Fitzpatrick (FF) 2659                                      

Awful result for Fianna Fail. Durken and Stagg are both in and it all depends on how much they give Catherine Murphy’s way. I’d say she’ll be ahead of McGinley at the end.       

Joan Burton’s surplus went mostly to her running mate. But also to Leo Varadaker who is now over the line.

1609: Meanwhile:

Kildare South (3 seats) Quota: 9568

Martin Heydon (FG) 12755                         
Jack Wall (LAB) 10645                                   
Sean O Fearghail (FF) 4514                          
Sean Power (FF) 3793                                   
Paddy Kennedy (IND) 2806                         
Jason Turner (SF) 2308                                  

Fairly straightforward. O’Fearghail should take the last seat, barring a wholesale transfer of votes to Turner.

1612: I won’t be covering every count by the way, especially as a lot will be coming along all at once soon. Just as they come up.

Busy hour coming up here.

1624: Big one here

Dun Laoghaire (4 seats) Quota: 11336

Eamon Gilmore (LAB) 11468                                      
Sean Barrett (FG) 10504                      
Mary Mitchell O’Connor (FG) 9087                          
Richard Boyd Barrett (PBP/ULA) 6206                                                    
Ivana Bacik (LAB) 5749                                  
Mary Hanafin (FF) 5090                       
Barry Andrews (FF) 3542                     
Ciaran Cuffe (G) 2156                                    

As expected. Gilmore elected but lacks a large surplus. Barrett and O’Connor will be fine and Gilmore’s surplus will get Bacik ahead of RBB. Fianna Fail can have little hope and bad for the Greens.

16:40: A few coming in:

Dublin North (4 seats) Quota: 9870

Dr James O’Reilly (FG) 10’178
Brendan Ryan (LAB) 9809                            
Clare Daly (SOC/ULA) 7513
Alan Farrell (FG) 5310                    
Trevor Sargent (G) 4186               
Darragh O’Brien (FF) 4115
Michael Kennedy (FF) 3519        
Tom Kelleher (LAB) 3205              
Dr Mark Harrold (IND) 1512        

Clare Daly is oh so close. Sargant might get FF transfers so he is far from finished. Farrell will get O’Reilly’s surplus but it might not be enough.

Dublin South (5 seats) Quota: 12108

Shane Ross (IND) 17075                                                
Olivia Mitchell (FG) 9635    
Peter Matthews (FG) 9053                         
Alex White (LAB) 8524                          
Alan Shatter (FG) 7716                         
Maria Corrigan (FF) 6844                                                              
Eamon Ryan (G) 4929                           
Aidan Culhane (LAB) 4535                   
Sorcha Nic Cormaic (SF) 1915                     
Nicola Curry (PBP/ULA) 1277

What a surplus, but who is it going to? Corrigan still in with a shout.

Higgins has got the transfers from the dregs of Dublin West and has been elected for the Socialists/ULA. First for them, but it looks like Clare Daly at least will be joining him.

1646: I’m just going to cut out anyone under 1000 votes from now on, to save space.

1659: Looks like a bit of a dogfight in Tipp South. Tom Hayes of FG is leading, with two Inds, Seamus Healy and Mattie McGrath behind him and Martin Mansergh (FF) and Michael Murphy (FG) behind them. Only three seats and no one is too far from anyone else. It’ll be Hayes and Healy to get through but that last seat is completely uncallable.

Fianna Fail’s vote has just vanished in Cork North-West, down 28%. Michael Creed of FG is leading, then FFs Michael Moynihan, Aine Collins (FG), Martin Coughlan (LAB) and Derry Canty (FG). Just three seats and I’d say the first three at the minute should be safe enough.

1703: Two more far left candidates, Rob Connolly and Michael Finnigan, have been eliminated in Dublin Mid-West. Bad for them, this is the kind of election where they would have had their best chance.

1717: Here we go:

Limerick City (4 seats) Quota 8638

Michael Noonan (FG) 13291                      
Willie O’Dea (FF) 6956                                   
Jan O’Sullivan (LAB) 6353                                             
Kieran O’Donnell (FG) 5405                                         
Maurice Quinlivan (SF) 3711                               
Joe Leddin (LAB) 2411                                   
Peter Power (LAB) 2303                                               
Kevin Kiely (IND) 1129                                   
Cian Prendiville (SOC/ULA) 721                                 
Sheila Cahill (G) 490                                        
Conor O’Donoghue (CS) 186                                       
Denis Riordan (IND) 173                                               
Matt Larkin (IND) 59                     

Noonan takes his first poll. O’Dea is way, way down. O’Donnell gets ahead of Quinlivan, who can still be happy with his performance. Leddin and Kiely will be disappointed, Power must have known this was coming. Prendiville got as much as he could have hoped for. Cahill never had a shot. The also-rans are the also-rans.

Wexford (5 seats) Quota: 12590                                           

Mick Wallace (IND) 13329                                                                                                            
Brendan Howlin (LAB) 11005                                      
Liam Twomey (FG) 9230                               
Michael W D’Arcy Jnr (FG) 8418                                
Paul Kehoe (FG) 8386                            
John Browne (FF) 7352                                 
Sean Connick (FF) 6675                                 
Pat Cody (LAB) 4457                                       
Anthony Kelly (SF) 4353
                                                
The long haired guy romps home. FG are safe for two seats,maybe three. Labour for one while Fianna Fail split their vote.

Bernard Durken has been elected on the second count in Kildare North. Catherine Murphy still looking good there and Lawlor should also get a seat. Little prospect of any FF presence.

1725: Sinn Feins first seat comes for Pearse Doherty with quite a quota. McGinley (FG) will follow him soon. Then Pringle and the two FF candidates, Coughlan and O’Domhnaill. I imagine Doherty’s surplus is heading Pringle’s way (he’s former SF). Goodbye Tanaiste.

Noonan is on RTE and looking very happy. He deserves it, after 30 years as the runner up.

1730: Whoh, things  changing in Dun Laoghaire. Gilmore’s surplus isn’t really enough to effect anything and Bacik remains behind RBB. Plenty of transfers still to come though. I imagine the FF votes will favour her.

1735: After one count, Galway East is way too close to call. FG should get two though. Brian Hayes has been elected on the second count in Dublin South-West and Eamon Maloney has pulled away from his challengers as well.

1745: In Dublin South-East, no one elected, but Lucinda Creighton is very close for Fine Gael. Eoghan Murphy (FG) and Ruiri Quinn will join her at some point. The last seat is between Chris Andrews (FF) and Kevin Humphreys (FG) both very close, with John Gormley falling out of contention rapidly.

1753: Four counts into Dublin West, no one else elected. Seamus Healy (IND/ULA) has passed the quota in Tipp South thanks to LAB transfers. Tom Hayes is not far off for FG). Fianna Fail are no longer in serious contention there. Fianna Fail really are destructing in a huge way today.

1800: Brendan Ryan (LAB) joins James Reilly in Dublin North. Joanna Tuffy is over the line in Dublin Mid-West with PBP/ULA candidate Gino Kenny being eliminated. Looks fairly open and shut there, two FG and two Labour though Eoin O’Broin, for Sinn Fein, may still challenge.

1815: The Greens are still without a seat. Fianna Fail are still without an elected seat. The vast majority of eliminated FFers is skewing some predictions, and will probably result in FG gaining seats where they normally wouldn’t.

Emmett Stagg has been elected in North Kildare but his tiny surplus, 19 votes, will not help his running mate John McGinley. Right now, it would appear Catherine Murphy (IND) and Anthony Lawlor (FG) will follow them, with Aine Brady’s defeat being another bitter blow to FF.

1830: Michael Martin will probably top the poll in his constituency and it looks likely he will be the only Fianna Fail candidate to do so. Low twenties is looking like the limit of their ambitions at this stage.

And that’s good news for Fine Gael, who will gain seats as a result. How many? It doesn’t even have to be that many to totally swing the outlook of the next Dail.

A result from Dublin North-West, Labours Roisen Shortall is elected on the first count, a thousand over the quota. Dessie Ellis of Sinn Fein looks set to win a seat there. Fine Gael appear to have polled quite poorly here, which hasn’t changed from last time.

And, unsurprisingly, Michael Lowry has walked away with Tipp North, a couple of thousand above quota, down only slightly from 2007. FGs Noel Coonan and Labours Alan Kelly will join him barring most of Lowry’s surplus going to FFs Maire Hoctor.

1844: In Dublin North, Labour have Brendan Ryan elected, and his running mate Tom Kellher eliminated. Probably shouldn’t have let him run.

Bug result from Cork East, where Labour’s Sean Sherlock breaches quota and Fianna Fail look down and out.

Results are coming thick and fast now. Terence Flanagan (FG), Dublin North-East has been elected on the first count. Labours Broughnan will get second soon, but everyone else is way behind, way too hard to call there. Mary O’Rourke has conceded in Longford-Westmeath.

This entry was posted in General Election 2011, Ireland, Limerick, Politics and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to The Count: 1400 To 1900

  1. Pingback: NFBs General Election Index | Never Felt Better

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