1000 Hello and welcome to NFBs coverage of the count for General Election 2011. This particular post will serve up until around 13:00 and will proceed in a top down fashion, with the latest news being at the top.
Before anything, I want to call attention to this story, which has caused some mild panic in Limerick. It appears the well-known rivalry between Fianna Fail candidates Willie O’Dea and Peter Power has erupted somewhat, with Power taking out newspaper ads, in a disingenuous voice of the party style, calling for FF voters to give him first preferences and seconds to O’Dea.
I don’t like this one bit. Power doesn’t stand much of a chance and this kind of thing is only going to cost O’Dea his seat as well. It’s almost like Power is acting out some kind of “If I’m going down, I’m talking you with me!” type scenario here. We’ll see how much of an effect it has by the end of the day.
Anyway, quiet as of yet, counting having only just started in most places. Tallies will start coming out soon, first counts are expected in the afternoon.
RTE’s Exit Poll is out and it makes for depressing reading for Fianna Fail, glorious for Sinn Fein and Labour. It’s not too far out from the polls of, say, two weeks ago at the end of the day. Some fellas at RTE think the Greens share could even out to three seats, which would be a fantastic result for them given the circumstances.
Tallies ongoing, first sniff of results will be coming in shortly. Last year it was Dublin West that first started reporting.
0945: First tally reports just so happens to come from Limerick City. Noonan on 25%, O’Dea on 19, O’Sullivan on 17 and Quinlivan on 15. First three will get elected, then Noonan’s surplus should get O’Donnell over the line.
0952: Dublin Central looks every inch the mess that people thought it would be based on the first tallies. Only Labours Joe Costello seems certain of a seat at the moment. Cyprian Brady does not appear to be in the running.
In Dun Laoghaire, both FFers look to be in trouble, with Andrews especially looking very doubtful. Fianna Fails Dublin numbers are just catastrophic looking.
The same can be said for Labour in the west and north who are on just 11% in those areas, with Fine Gael breaching 40. 65% in Mayo, those are four seat numbers.
1004: It’s looking increasingly likely that Labours Ivana Bacik and PBPs Richard Boyd Barrett will be in a dogfight for the last seat in Dun Laoghaire. With Gilmore’s surplus, I have to favour the Labour Senator and it will be a depressing blow to the Micro-Party if RBB fails to get elected to the Dail again.
1028: Paul Gogarty has conceded in Dublin Mid-West, via Twitter. He was never likely to hold on. Lots of the same coming in all over the place in preliminary tallies, Fine Gael and Labour going strong, Sinn Fein in contention, Fianna Fail in trouble.
It looks, based upon the earliest reports, that Fianna Fail or Labour, Fine Gael, and Lowry will take a seat each in Tipp North.
Adams is looking strong in Louth, plenty of first preferences, with 5 seats up for grabs he should be fine.
An updated Limerick City tally sees Noonan increase to 29 and Quinlivan fall back to 11. On that basis, it certainly would appear that O’Donnell should be good for a seat.
1044: Interesting results coming in from Cork North-West, where FG and FF was over 35 each. At least one seat safe for FF there, probably Moynihan. FG are on 44, but that’s between three candidates. Danger of vote splitting there.
Fine Gael are way out in front in Clare, they look good for two seats there, Joe Carey and Pat Breen Tony Mulcahy are the candidates there, again a danger of vote splitting.
Mick Wallace, Independent, is doing quite well in Wexford by most accounts and should be fairly transfer friendly. Might be a rare example of an Independent with no background getting elected.
One of the constituencies I really want to see the result of, Wicklow, doesn’t seem to be throwing many votes the 14 Independents way. Fine Gael way out in front there, at 39% last report.
Looks like Fianna Fail will be good for the one Mayo seat that won’t be FG, as long as their two candidates don’t split the vote (seriously, why?)
1106: Brian Lenihan should take the last seat in Dublin West, but he’ll be well behind Burton, Varadker and Higgins.
Some info on the Wicklow Independents: 22% of the total so far. Mother of God, that’s a lot of first preferences going towards those 14 candidates.
A lot of reports coming in that Maru Coughlan, the Tanaiste, is in trouble in Donegal South-West. Talking away McGinley (FG) and Doherty (SF) as fairly safe seats, she’s in a battle with running mate O’Domhnaill (another guy for the future losing out due to the old guard) and Independent Pringle.
RTE claims that Labour are the most transfer friendly, though not very far ahead of Fine Gael. Fianna Fail are way down in that regard. If they aren’t close after one count, they won’t get seats.
1122: In terms of transfers from former Fianna Failers, it’s mostly to Fine Gael as I expected, but nearly a quarter go to Labour, which surprises me. Only 10% going to Sinn Fein. Since we’re looking at an unprecedented amount of FF eliminations, this is very important.
One thing I am noticing, watching the tallies come in, is that Fianna Fail numbers in individual Dublin constituencies are higher than 8. Not much higher, but enough they won’t suffer a wipeout.
Fine Gael are hitting 50% in Cavan-Monaghan, between three candidates. Labour are not in contention at all there.
Healy Rae Junior is lagging behind in 5th at present time in Kerry South. What a shock that would be.
Update on Limerick City: Power on less than 5%, with Noonan certain to top the poll.
1144: The Micro-Parties haven’t been doing stellar so far, with the New Vision candidate in Cavan-Monaghan just conceding. The Worker’s Party candidate in Cork North-Central is beating the Greens though.
In Cork South-Central, Martin appears to be doing quite well, FF on 25%, but I doubt it will be enough to get a second guy in.
Fine Gael look set to take two seats in Cork South West, with Fianna Fail likely to take the other. Sinn Fein are not in the running there. Some geographical considerations may see a relatively low Labour vote rise. Same outcome expected in Cork North-West.
In Limerick City, it is looking like a two-man race for the last seat between O’Donnell and Quinlivan with O’Donnell on 10%.
1211: I’m predicting Pringle will take a seat in Donegal South-West. Looks like the Haughey dynasty is coming to an end in Dublin with Sean losing out. Niall Collins should hang on for Fianna Fail in County Limerick, but FG will take the other two seats. That’ll be disappointing for Labours James Heffernen, who was tipped there.
The Greens look likely to lose their seat in Dublin South, Eamon Ryan, with Senator Shane Ross to top the poll. In Dublin South-East it’s shaping up to be two each for FG and Labour.
Baron Gerry is going to be Baron Gerry, TD it would seem, just behind Fergus O’Dowd in Louth.
It would appear FG have done their strategy well in Mayo, evening out the votes between the four candidates. Looking likely for all of them to represent the county in the next Dail.
Most counts are being scheduled for 1700 or after.
1227: I’m predicting Bacik to take the last seat in Dun Laoghaire now, she’ll get the transfers from Gilmore and Hanafin. Bitter for RBB.
Looks like the Spring dynasty will be back in North Kerry-Limerick West, in form of Arthur.
RTE is hinting that Fianna Fail will take two seats in Galway West. Quite a coup if that is the case.
Mick Wallace, astonishingly, is racing ahead in Wexford, the exception that proves the rule regarding non-aligned/inexperienced Independents. In Donegal, Coughlan is in a hell of a fight, not doing well in her home area. Pringle still ahead of her.
Limerick City is no longer a contest, as O’Donnell has pulled ahead of Quinlivan. Noonan and O’Dea will get elected on the first count, O’Sullivan and O’Donnell in the third and fourth.
Healy Rae II is making a strong comeback in Kerry South, but it remains incredibly tight.
1247: Stagg and Durken, Labour and Fine Gael respectively, will hold their seats in Kildare North, with Independent Catherine Murphy polling well. Fianna Fail, previously with two seats, have seen their support evaporate here. Kildare South is heading towards an even split between the big three parties, one each.
Michael Lowry is strolling to a poll-topping performance again in Tipp North with Fianna Fail’s one seat in trouble (I know, shocking).
In Sligo, a sitting TD, Fianna Fails Eamon Scanlon, is getting just 2% in early tallies with FG looking likely to pick up his seat. A four seat FG result in Mayo is now looking like a certainty.
1314: Labour, running two candidates in Waterford, have split their vote almost evenly. Bad move there. Wicklow continues to confound, all that is really certain is that Fianna Fail are losing out to FGs gain. Independents carrying 21.4% of the vote between them.
A lot of counts upcoming soon, with the majority around three hours from now. RTE coverage has been pretty good so far, but it’s gotten a little quiet. Adams now appears likely to top the poll in Louth and O’Cuiv has pulled ahead of his opponents in Galway West.
1350: Twitter is having major problems in Ireland, extremely irritating. RTE, for some reason, have decided to forgo their coverage at the same time so they can show a documentary about Irish streets. Seriously, what moron in the RTE offices thought that was a good idea?
Despite the huge Independent vote, Fine Gael look like they will pick up three seats in Wicklow. Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Fein will take one each in Kerry North-Limerick West. It now appears Michael Martin will bring running mate Michael McGrath with him, with two FG and one Labour. One each for the top four parties in Cork East.
1353: Switching over to a new post now.