NFBs Dail Outlook Of The Week, 24 February

My last one, so this can serve as my prediction for the election tomorrow. Things effecting my thinking this week:

-The final stabilisation of voting patterns.
-Enda Kenny’s minor pension scandal.
-The media’s attention on a sole FG government.
-The polls.
-Labour recognising that coalition with Fine Gael is the only option for their government plans.
-Labour losing their zest as a result.
-The last debate and the apparent success of Martin.
-The ULA falling away from attention just a tad.

Which leaves me with:

Fianna Fail: 28 (I decided to add the Ceann Comhairle, Shemus Kirk, to FFs numbers)
Fine Gael: 70
Labour: 38
Sinn Fein: 10
Greens: 1
Other: 19

Which, from my last outlook is a difference of -2 for Fianna Fail (then adding the CC), +4 for Fine Gael, -2 for Labour and the same for everyone else.

I can imagine Fianna Fail getting higher than that, especially if the Sinn Fein/ULA numbers aren’t as solid as they seem. Fine Gael are going to hit 70, but the only way they will get higher is if Fianna Fail have a further collapse. Labour’s numbers I am happy with, I think they’ll be pushing it with more than 40.

Anyway, that’s it. We’ll see by the end of the weekend how right I was.