The last Sunday of the campaign. Whose looking for divine intervention this morning?
Fianna Fail? Latest polls give them a bit of a bounce and Betfair say they’ll pick up a mid-twentish number of seats. Right now, that might be a satisfactory result for them though I’d personally wager their final tally might be a bit higher than that, but not much higher.
Fine Gael? Boy, all the momentum is with them it would seem. Could it be possible? Single party government? With Independents of course which is always a dodgy prospect. The thought of Lowry and Healy Rae having an influence with government is somewhat galling after the last term. Still, all Kenny has to do to finally secure the top job, and a legacy of FGs most succesful electoral leader, is to just stay the course, deflect the criticism and not implode during the last debate on Tuesday.
Labour? It’s all going a little pear shaped and the attacks on Fine Gael aren’t having the desired effect it would seem. As I’ve previously mentioned, I don’t think being the largest party in opposition would be such a bad thing for Labour, and they should be wary of the example that has been set by the Liberal Democrats across the water. They’re not exactly the most popular people amongst their own supporters a year after going into government with a right wing party. Something for Gilmore to think about. What not cut ties with Kenny?
Sinn Fein? They’re slipping a little in the polls too, but to such a small extent that it might be meaningless. If Sinn Fein are praying for anything, it’s probably for the attention on their party to no longer be on Gerry Adams past, which seems to almost be the only thing of any note on them for most of last week.
The Greens? A resurgence, even a limited one, would be on the top of Gormley’s prayer list. It seems unlikely that Gormley himself, so close to not getting in last time, will get the required votes on this outing. The Greens are in desperate trouble and might just take one seat of it was offered to them by the election Gods right now.
The ULA? Probably praying that most of that “Others” vote is going their way. Worst case scenario is two returns, best is closer to ten. It’s so hard to call the ULA chances and I really can’t wait to see how much of this supposed shift to the left in Irish politics is reality or fantasy.
And the many Independents? For those defending seats, they’ll be praying they were able to grab enough for their constituencies in the last term to justify their continued TD status. For everyone else, the first timers and the perennial also-rans, they’ll be praying for a miracle, an upset, or maybe just to get more than a hundred votes.
Maybe a hiccup for Fine Gael today, in the form of Enda Kenny’s pension. I’m not really sure just how much of an issue this might be, he could just turn around and drop it tomorrow, but it’s a better thing to go after Fine Gael with then Labours policy attacks. We might see this brought up in the last debate on Tuesday and Kenny’s response will be crucial.
And of course, the second I type that, Kenny announces that he will not accept any of his teachers pension. It won’t go away quite that easily.
Never Felt Better 
“they should be wary of the example that has been set by the Liber Democrats across the water.”
I think that could be a very big thing indeed – And also, worth looking at the Greens’ record here. I don’t know a single Green voter that is still planning to vote Green, and Labour could lose any momentum they’ve gained from a leftwards shift in voting by going into coalition with FG. As much as everyone expects it, it might be good for them in the long term to be The Opposition Party for four years – establishing the Left as the opposition to both FF and FG, and themselves as The Alternative.
Yeah, the Third Level Fess question has been a killer for the Lib Dems. It was one of their core issues during the election and they completly backed down less then a year into government. Que students rioting in the streets and Nick Clegg looking like a patsy.
I can easily see something like that happening to Labour if they go into government as a minority partner. Might not be Fees, could be healthcare, could be mortgages, Unions, something like that. Something they’re forced to compromise on in order to stay in government. And it might ruin them.
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