Right, just over a week to go. Things effecting my thinking this week.
-The Fine Gael/Labour cat fighting.
-The polls (Only in general)
-The betting (always a more accurate estimation of local support)
-The media attention on an FG-only government.
-FF continuing to slip, with Labour joining them a little.
-The EU acknowledgement that parts of the bailout deal might be changed.
-The Irish language debate.
-Labour’s negative campaigning.
-The media starting to ignore Fianna Fail.
Which leaves me with:
Fianna Fail: 29
Fine Gael: 66
Sinn Fein: 10
Ceann Comhairle: 1
Which, from my last outlook, is a difference of -4 for Fianna Fail, +4 for Fine Gael, -1 for Labour, -1 for Sinn Fein, +1 for the Greens and +1 for “Others”.
The sudden sharp drop in the Fianna Fail numbers is simply a recognition of a total lack of stabilisation in their support, and simply no sign of them holding firm on 30+ seats. The media starting to focus more and more on the other parties is just a clearer sign of this.
As for Fine Gael, it’s the reverse. Everything seems to be trying to make them the next government on their own, and while I don’t think that is a possibility just yet, they are edging towards 70 seats. On this prediction, they’d need the support of every Independent, so still, only an FG/Lab government possible. The Greens recent inroads and debate performances lead me to give them a token seat, probably Sargant.
See you next Thursday for my pre-Election final prediction.