Meanwhile, In Limerick (General Election 2011)

Candidates in Limerick City now stand at nine officially with a possible two more. Taking a closer look at some of those:

Kevin Kiely is a former Mayor (2010) and Fine Gael member. Notable for his (ahem) dislike of immigrants and his call for the re-introduction of the death penalty during his term in office.

Kiely’s running is generally seen as throwing a strop at Fine Gael, who refused to let him run as the third candidate in the constituency. I doubt highly that FG are running a third candidate at all, and even if they were, Kiely is a bad choice. He says he’ll be an FG favourable Independent if elected, wanting to avoid a Labour coalition. Fantasy.

He won’t get elected, having only a small core of support in the city. He will take votes off Noonan and O’ Donnell though. It won’t be much, but O’ Donnell must be getting kind of worried at this stage.

Conor O’ Donoghue might be a Christian Solidarity Candidate, perennial also-rans who have never had any success whatsoever. Something above 150 votes would be considered a success for him.

The Green’s say that will run someone. That someone will be considered successfull if they finish ahead of Cian Prendiville. I don’t see them getting ahead of Power, Quinlivan or even Kiely at this point.

Revised prediction (top four elected):

1. Noonan (FG)
2. O’ Sullivan (Lab)
3. O’ Dea (FF)
4. Leddin (Lab)
5. O’ Donnell (FG)
6. Power (FF)
7. Quinlivan (SF)
8. Kiely (Ind)
9. Green Candidate
10. Prendiville (ULA)
11. O’ Donoghue (CSP)

Talking about what the candidates have been up to. O’ Dea and Power helped Martin out on his visit to Limerick on Wednesday, O’ Dea apparently giving a fairly rousing speech to the party faithful (though Power was allowed to introduce Martin to the crowd). Morale has to be a big issue on a street level for Fianna Fail I guess.

Power himself appeared on Prime Time with constituency opponent Michael Noonan on Tuesday. Power focused heavily on playing up Martin’s ideas for the future but was fairly soundbitish. Seemed a little desperate to avoid any mention of the last term, talked about reform a small bit. His idea for reform: stopping the shouting in the Dail. Interesting. Noonan went after the polling process big time. His reform ideas were the reduction of TD numbers and abolition of the Senate. He came of way better than Power on the reform question. Noonan was clearly more relaxed and clear then Power who was somewhat jumpy. Fairly civilised too, can’t always say that for Irish political talk shows.

Michael Noonan appears to have been largely absent from Limerick so far in the campaign, his position as Fine Gael Finance Spokesman tieing him to national issues. Not doing too badly either, laying the smackdown on Brian Lenihan Thursday morning and committing Fine Gael to renegotiating the bailout deal. He’s certainly been benchmarked as FG’s statement guy and I wonder just how much time he’s going to be spending in Limerick during this campaign. He’ll get elected of course, but O’ Donnell needs some help.

Cian Prendiville has the support of Joe Harrington, a former socialist Mayor of Limerick. It won’t help him.

Everyone knows I have a low opinion of polls, but I’d have a greater regard for a local one in Limerick City, especially as it covers a lower amount of people than those Quantum/RedC nonsense projects.

None so far, the closest being this, the most worthless, unscientific poll imaginable. Done online, no guard against multiple IPs, people outside the country allowed to vote, over a month…garbage. I’ve no doubt Sinn Fein will do better this time round, but to suggest they will be the most popular party is insanity of the highest margin.

Thursday night was bad for Limerick. Both Cian Prendiville, Quinlivan and O’ Dea called it for canvassing that night, in that order. Doesn’t surprise me that Fianna Fail stayed out the latest (that I know off), they’re just so desperate for votes.

Quinlivan has a flyer out. I like how the Sinn Fein candidate reduced law and order to a tiny scrap on the bottom right. He must realise he hasn’t got a leg to stand on in that area. Usual nonsense from SF, whose election literature lives in a fantasy land of easy answers and limitless investment.

Just a quick shout out to Paddy Power and the odds their offering on the election. O’ Dea an astonishing 1/40 to be re-elected, ahead of Noonan on 1/20. Then O’ Sullivan, and right now O’ Donnell ahead of Leddin, just. Quinlivan, Kiely, Power and Prendiville lagging behind.

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1 Response to Meanwhile, In Limerick (General Election 2011)

  1. Pingback: NFBs General Election Index | Never Felt Better

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